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Abeytunga, P K (1978) The role of the first line supervisor in construction safety: the potential for training, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Construction and Environmental Health, Aston University.

Albarkoly, K (2017) Exploring the maintenance practices and strategies in the Libyan cement industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

Allenby, V R (1986) Cost models for engineering services, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Aston University.

Alqubaisi, S (2019) Developing a framework to assess the portfolio governance, risk and compliance of Abu Dhabi Government entities in the UAE, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Bartram, N (1981) Evaluation and development of drainage and pipeline construction processes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Berny, J (1988) Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Aston Business School, Aston University.

Byrd, R H (1981) The mathematical modelling of the environmental performance of buildings as an aid in the design process, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Callcott, A E (1985) Microcomputers for civil engineering consultancy in developing countries, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

De Garay, A (1982) Evaluation of public housing strategies in Mexico City: an exploratory goal programming approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Construction and Environmental Health, Aston University.

Eke, G (2017) Determining the probability distributions of cost and time overrun arising from different contractor selection strategies in construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

  • Type: Thesis
  • Keywords: best value tender; contractor selection; lowest tender; modelling; Monte Carlo simulation; probability distribution
  • ISBN/ISSN:
  • URL: http://publications.aston.ac.uk/id/eprint/33316/
  • Abstract:

    Failing to adequately select the winning contractor can lead to problems in the project delivery phase such as bad quality and project delay, which ultimately results in cost overruns. There are two strategies involved with selecting contractors: one is the lowest tender; the other is called best value. Selecting the lowest tender is straightforward; the latter strategy would involve scoring the contractors’ tenders on price and quality and ranking them. The aim of this research is to provide a model of determining the probability distributions of cost and time arising from choosing different contractor selection strategies: lowest tender or best value tender. The research presents an approach by which a what-if scenario can be analysed using educational facilities projects in the UK. A Monte Carlo Simulation model was developed to allow the evaluation of the probability distributions of cost, and duration arising from the different strategies, these a represented as probability curves. The results show that the lowest tenderer would likely overrun in cost, but the cost will be below the price of the best value tenderer. However, there is a higher probability that the lowest tender will exceed the clients’ expected duration, perhaps by a significant amount. The first contribution of the thesis is the development of a novel model of determining the probability distributions of cost and time involved with the different contractor selection strategies by using Monte Carlo simulation. The second contribution is a fresh way of looking at cost overruns. It is proposed that contractors’ cost overrun for a project should be compared to the price of the next highest tender to gauge its real impact.

El Bakry, S M (1981) Measurement of productivity and cost of the direct labour organisation within highways maintenance departments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Flanagan, R (1980) Tender price and time prediction for construction work, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Construction and Environmental Health, Aston University.

Haghdadi, H (1989) The role of micro computers on the construction site, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Aston University.

Izzat, R M (1977) A computerised approach to bidding strategy in civil engineering, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Jesson, J K (1988) Ethnic minority builders: a comparative study of Britain and the United States of America on affirmative action in the building industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Aston Business School, Aston University.

Johnston, J O D (1975) Development of a computerised library system in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Jones, A M (1990) Design and construction for traditional house building, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Aston University.

Kim, K (2015) Conceptual building information modelling framework for whole-house refurbishment based on LCC and LCA, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

Kotula, M (2013) Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

McLeish, D C A (1978) House building productivity: A study of labour requirements on Scottish house building sites using activity sampling methods, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Nayfeh, M (1989) A combination of cyclone and vert techniques for the management of construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Aston University.

Panopoulos, G D (2003) Economic aspects of safety in the Greek construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

Parker, M A (2022) Developing a performance index to measure soft skills on construction projects: a Delphi study, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Peckitt, S J (2001) Construction industry safety culture: a comparative study of Britain and the Caribbean, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Aston University.

Prabhu, S P (1980) Effective tendering for large scale overseas turnkey projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Construction and Environmental Health, Aston University.

Sidwell, A C (1982) A critical study of project team organisational forms within the building process, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Construction and Environmental Health, Aston University.

Skinner, D W H (1979) An analysis of the utility of bills of quantities in the process of building contracting, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University.

Thannon, A Y (1989) The appraisal and management of multistorey dwelling blocks using large concrete panel systems, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Aston University (United Kingdom).